You think America’s tail-between-its-legs departure from Afghanistan was bad? Something even worse is coming in the Pacific, albeit more quietly.

U.S. defenses in the Asia-Pacific center on a defense line running from Japan to Philippines to Taiwan and on to Borneo. The so-called First Island Chain.

Try defending against China along the first island chain without a secure “rear area” in the Central Pacific. And suppose it’s the Chinese in the rear.

The Chinese destroyer Jinan and Russian cruiser Varyag sail in formation after a joint naval exercise in the East China Sea on Dec. 27, 2022. (Sun Fei/Xinhua via Getty Images)

American control of the Central Pacific depends on three treaties – known as Compacts of Free Association (COFA) – with three nations: Palau, Federated States of Micronesia, and Republic of Marshall Islands. These nations and their huge maritime territory comprise most of an “east-west corridor” from Hawaii to the western edge of the Pacific that is essential for U.S. control and military operations in the region.

That $120 million a year for 20 years ($2.3 billion total) would be an even better deal for Japan.

If the U.S. government can’t get this done, maybe Tokyo will help. Otherwise, we deserve to lose.

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Grant Newsham is a retired U.S. Marine officer and former U.S. diplomat. He is the author of the book “When China Attacks: A Warning To America.”