Guillaume, a outspoken Google AdSense engineer, has spent a lot of time replying to complaints about pricing in a Google AdSense Help thread.
He goes through why a site may see a reduction in the dollars they make per click even after the estimated earnings are a certain price.
Of course he posts the “Smart Pricing” video:
But he also adds a lot of detail about how the AdSense pricing algorithms ‘think.’
If you have been hit by something like this, I strongly recommend you read the Google engineers posts in the Google AdSense Help thread and see how you can change your content and traffic to drive better quality users to your site.
Forum discussion at Google AdSense Help.